The Pearl Harbor Question People Are Afraid to Ask

Whether FDR allowed Pearl Harbor to happen is a thorny question. What's clear is that FDR wanted the US in World War II and was looking for a casus belli.

Dylan Allman has a tweet worth reading on X. Here is an excerpt:

Did you know that FDR likely had foreknowledge of the attack on Pearl Harbor but chose not to stop it resulting in the immediate loss of over 2,400 American lives and, subsequently, the U.S. entering World War II, resulting in over 400,000 more conscripted American deaths?

Declassified documents and testimonies from the time reveal a complex web of intelligence reports and intercepted Japanese communications, suggesting that U.S. officials, including President Roosevelt himself, had significant forewarning of Japan's intentions.

One of the key pieces of evidence is the McCollum memo, written in October 1940 by Lieutenant Commander Arthur H. McCollum of the Office of Naval Intelligence. This memo outlined a potential strategy for forcing Japan into war with the United States, including actions that could provoke a Japanese attack. Additionally, the U.S. had been monitoring Japanese communications through its 'Magic' cryptographic program, which had successfully decrypted numerous Japanese diplomatic cables, including those hinting at a possible strike.

Despite this, no definitive action was taken to bolster defenses at Pearl Harbor, leading to the devastating attack on December 7, 1941. The consequences were catastrophic.

This might sound like a crazy conspiracy to some readers. I know I would have considered it such a thing at one time (albeit many years ago).

But there is a ton of historical evidence to support Allman’s central claim: FDR had plenty of reasons to suspect a Japanese attack was coming—and he wanted an attack to happen.

I first came to this troubling realization more than two decades ago after reading Thomas Fleming’s 2001 book The New Dealers’ War. (If I recall correctly, I bought my father the book for Christmas, partly because I wanted to read it myself.)

Fleming, who died in 2017, provided a page-turning history that makes a convincing case that FDR was angling for a war with Japan and searching for a casus belli.

It’s been years since I read the book, but I recall it’s beginning quite well. Fleming describes in great detail a poorly-equipped Naval vessel from the Spanish-American War trolling around in international waters where Japanese subs and other far more sophisticated war ships were roaming.

The vessel was never attacked, but Fleming used the episode to support his broader thesis: FDR wanted the US in World War II, was preparing for war well before Pearl Harbor, and appeared to be searching for an event that would justify America’s entry into the conflict.

Most Americans don’t know this today, and relatively few would accept it if they did. It strikes too close to the heart of the mythology of America the wish to believe, or too closely to the politician or ideology they revere.

This reminds me of something the great poet T.S. Eliot wrote long ago.

"Humankind cannot bear very much reality," Eliot wrote in "Burnt Norton.”

Indeed.

To his credit, Allman asks the loaded question in regard to FDR’s inactivity prior to Pearl Harbor despite clear warnings.

“Was this a Machiavellian maneuver to shift the U.S. from isolationism to active participation in World War II?” he asks.

It’s a difficult question to answer with a simple yes or no, because history is often gray. After all, Fleming conceded there’s evidence to suggest that FDR didn’t expect Japan’s attack to be as devastating as it was.

Still, I think it’s clear that FDR wanted the US in the war and was looking for a casus belli. In Pearl Harbor, he found it.

If you doubt this, that’s fine. But if you do, my challenge to you is this: read The New Dealers’ War.

If you do, my hunch is your doubts will slowly vanish.